○ 정책 목표 제시 - 2015년 신년사는 조국해방 및 당창건 70돌을 맞아 “사회주의 수호전과 강성국가 건설”이라는 기조 아래 사상, 총대, 과학기술의 3대 정책 방향을 제시 - 대내외 정세에 대해 정치사상적 통제 강화, 혁명무력과 국방력 강화, 과학 기술을 앞세워 체제수호에 강조점을 두고 있음을 시사 ○ 대내정책 기조 - 당의 유일적 영도체계 심화와 사상교양 강화를 강조하면서 김정은 체제의 안정적 통치기반 구축과 운용에 방점 - 국방공업에서의 병진노선 관철, 과학기술을 통한 경제발전, 국방력 강화, 인민생활 향상 강조 - 경제는 전반적으로 새로운 비전을 제시하지 않고 전년도 기조를 유지하고 있어 온건하지만 고답적인 경제정책 추진을 예고 ○ 대남정책 기조 - 2013년, 2014년에 비해 대남 관련 언급에 상대적으로 많은 비중을 할애하여 2015년 중요 정책적 관심 분야임을 시사 - ‘북남관계 개선’, ‘북남관계 전진’, ‘북남관계 대전환, 대변혁’ 등 표현을 다양하게 구사하며 5회에 걸쳐 남북관계 개선을 직접 언급(2013년 1회, 2014년 3회) - 고위급 접촉 재개, 부문별 회담 및 최고위급 회담(정상회담) 수락 용의까지 남북관계 실질적 진전을 강조 - 그러나 남북관계 개선을 위한 전제조건을 다수 열거하여 남북관계의 주도권을 장악할 수 있는 소재와 명분을 드러냄 - 전반적으로 북한인권 문제와 외교적 고립, 남한의 대화공세를 돌파하는 수단으로 남북관계를 다목적으로 활용하려는 포석으로 보임...

Ⅰ. 전반적 특징 ·················································································································· 1 Ⅱ. 2014년도 평가 ············································································································ 5 1. 총평 ···························································································································································· 5 2. 정치 ···························································································································································· 5 3. 경제 ···························································································································································· 6 4. 군사 ···························································································································································· 6 5. 사회·문화 ···················································································································································· 6 6. 대남 ···························································································································································· 6 7. 대외 ···························································································································································· 6 Ⅲ. 2015년도 과업 ············································································································ 7 1. 정치 ···························································································································································· 7 2. 경제 ···························································································································································· 8 3. 사회·문화 ·················································································································································· 10 4. 군사 ··························································································································································· 11 5. 대남 ··························································································································································· 12 6. 대외 ··························································································································································· 13 Ⅳ. 2015년도 부문별 전망 ····························································································· 14 1. 정치 ··························································································································································· 14 2. 경제 ··························································································································································· 15 3. 사회·문화 ·················································································································································· 16 4. 군사 ··························································································································································· 17 5. 대남 ··························································································································································· 18 6. 대외 ··························································································································································· 20 Ⅴ. 정책적 함의 ················································································································ 21 1. 정세 판단 유의사항 ·································································································································· 21 2. 대북정책 추진방향 ···································································································································· 23 부록 1. 2015년 북한 신년사 원문 ·············································································································· 25